Talib takeover. USA and China. Reasons, events and expected results.

After 11 September 2001 the American occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan begins. In both places the war expenditure of the USA so far reached $3-3 trillion. (Trillion = milliard of milliard). A huge sum, we can’t even imagine how big.

Moreover, nor the Soviet Union, nor Great Britain could overcome before. But they could do one thing: created a permanent war condition, in which every reminiscent of the former cultures got destroyed. And those were many. Medians, Persians, Alexander the Great, Arabs, Turks, Mongols all left their mark. That shows well on the current ethnic composition. After the Islamic conquest that land was called Horasan [Hurāsān] and this name is found in numerous Prophetic visions. Herat was a major center of the Islamic culture. Genghis Khan destroyed it in 1219, but in 1504 Babur, who was a descendant of Genghis Khan and Tamerlane, created the Mughal Empire in the name of Islam with its capital in Kabul.

I don’t wish to go over the history, nor the events of recent history, I only wish to point out that what the world did here in the past few decades is a crime against humanity, which shows well how can a people be bombed back to the Stone Age on the ground and bring absolutely down mentally, which might even bring graver consequences than the physical destruction. So barbaric acts should not only be looked for on the Afghan side.

16 August 2021, the Talib forces occupy Kabul and take over the power. How should we evaluate this?

  1. If that means the defeat and the dilettantism of the USA than it is bad news.
  2. If that means the victory of a incredible brain-washed radical gang than it is even worse news.
  3. If that means an agreement between the USA and the brain-washed gang than it is more then worrisome.
  4. If we count into this the interests of China, the redistribution of the narcotics market, the launch of destabilizing of other countries and radical actions than this is alarming news.

Let us see this in due order!

1. The casual spectator sees only one thing. The USA threw $3 trillion out of the window in Afghanistan and achieved nothing. After the Second World War the USA waged war in many fields and won none of these. Though Hollywood embedded the concept of the USA’s invincibility, technical and and technology superiority. Is really the USA so incompetent? What happened in the meantime? What happened that the USA constantly kept alive a wartime status quo. In that given time that resulted massive credit investment and military production, which was much more important and lucrative than the victory of principles. That $3 trillion came back multiplied, as they only had to print the money, or transfer it electronically. But its base value should not be looked for in the USA. It is enough to follow the numerous financial manipulations and measures raising inflation, which balanced the exchange rate of the dollar with the corruption of the purchase power of the currencies in countries outside the US. It is a complex matter to evaluate the war expedites of America in its own.

But these are only the financial matters. With the occupation of Afghanistan the US first wanted to block Putin, then later on China. It also aimed to seal off Iran as well. That worked for a while, but today China is not what it was. Today it is a developed financial and technological super power with a logistical empire, which cannot stop. It has to develop. It has only one rival: America.

2. Can we assume that the Talibs won by their faith in Allah and their determination yielded city after the other to their hands? Surely there are many who believe this. I don’t. The Talibs are, were some 75 thousand. The army serving the Afghan central power is of some 350 troops, which America equipped with developed armaments, armored vehicles and transports, plus here come as well the massive logistical support they received by the use of the most developed assets. Should we not forget the direct support of the Americans and their allies either. It is unacceptable for me that the Talibs could advance like knife in the butter. This had to have a reason. Moreover, the military equipment and vases with full armaments became apprehended by the Talibs. By now we can be sure that the soldiers of the government troops also swell the ranks of the Talibs. It should also be noted that the Talibs’ wahhabi understanding of Islam, which lack any sort of theological scientific substance is against the Shia, therefore against Iran. Only one province is Shia in Afghanistan, Mazar Sharif [Mazār-e Šarīf], where the Talibs regularly kept blowing up mosques. 

3. Can it be that the USA and the Talibs made a pact? Yes, it is possible. Just like it can also happen, that China and the Talibs made a pact, but I shall reflect upon that in the next point. For the US blocking regional powers here held no more benefit. The war goes on, but not with traditional means. There are such informational, satellite and other technologies, to which compared a fully armed soldier bares no significant power. These technologies keep on serving the operations, just not like before. Why do we assume that the Talibs today are the enemies of the US? Are they useful? Aren’t they good to blockade Iran? Aren’t they suitable to form the nucleus of such radical groups, which can form a barrier against the Chinese logistical development and other Chinese interests? Aren’t these terrorist groups much more effective than a regular army? They are proxies, so no American blood is spilled, while they act upon American interests. Isn’t it indifferent for America which ideology these groups follow, whether they enforce the burqa of women and keep a reign of terror amongst their own kind? These are exactly the most suitable! Here I would like to note that America is not at all picky when it comes to its guarantee its interests. Amongst the many languages of Afghanistan the most widespread is the Dari language, a versions of Persian. Therefore in their bases they used thousands of Persian translators, who were locals and Iranians. The Talibs constantly execute those, who were in the service of the Americans and their allies. So the lives of thousands of employees and “translators” are in danger as well. Right now not only the evacuation of the embassy staff is ongoing, but their’s as well. And where do they go? To Albania:


Why exactly to Albania? Because the USA had already created the Ašraf 3 base, a camp there. It belongs to the Mujahideen-e Khalq-e Iran, so the Holy Warriors of the People of Iran who are the enemies of the Iranian people and the Iranian government. This is an Iranian groups led by Mrs Rajavi. This former (until 2013) terrorist groups is so important for the US that at one time sent Rudy Giuliani to praise them:



Even Albanian President Ilir Metát was sent out to pay a protocol visit to Mrs. Rajavi and the Ašraf 3 base:


So this is where the “translators” are going, not to California.

Summarizing all these above we can see that America did not abandoned its intentions at all, only the methods are different. These assets we sometimes see, and sometimes not, but they are more effective than the great war slogans.

4. And what about China? What is China otherwise so poor in raw materials and power sources, which does not allow any stop or stagnation? In this region Iran and the Persian Gulf so rich in resources are vital. The road leads through Afghanistan. There are other routes as well for China to other resources, but this region is strategic. Cannot be let alone, or handed over. China has a diplomatic experience 5 thousand years longer than the methods of the US. The peoples of this region know China and know what to expect from it. The Talibs and China agreed. China needs the support of the Talibs, while the Talibs need China’s economic power and good neighborly behavior. All Talib factions are on the side of China? Or are they split between the US and China? Time will tell. Just like the route the so far most lucrative narcotics trade will take and where it will go. Where is the market? Is there a deal in this as well? We cannot know this either. But we know that the Talibs first took over the border crossings, even before the cities.