On 7 December 2024 the Syrian government of President Baššār al-Asad came to an end. With this the Syrian state built by the Ba‘at Party and Movement since 1961, the state that was greatly restructured and built up as a key actor in the region by President Ḥāfiẓ al-Asad since 1970 and the tenure of his son President Baššār al-Asad since 2000, but also the unending political, military and economic struggle since 2011 all came to an end. Which was followed by the devastating onslaught of the Tel-Aviv regime, destroying all military capabilities of the state. And thus one of the three strong Middle Eastern power blocks, the Axis of Resistance built of the alliance of the theocratic Iran and the secular Syria also ended. Not one era, but several ended in a dramatic sequence of events, seemingly starting on 27 November, reaching a conclusion on 7 December. Syria as a state and coherent society came to the brink of collapse. All that is receiving and in the short foreseeable future will continue to attract assessments, pointing out the inherent contradictions, problems and unsustainable nature of the Syrian state that has been existing so far.
Much of what has been and will be said might be very true. The Syrian state since 2011 with the beginning of the war against it under the pretext of the so called “Arabic Spring”, was in a deepening crisis, which only exacerbated after the relative military victory by 2018, with the beginning the even more devastating economic war against it. To which it had not proper answers, and thus its downfall is justifiably portrayed as inevitable.
However, the fog of war, especially by the Western media and massive media campaigns in the social media almost completely obscures the events of the very brief period between 27 November and 7 December. It is portrayed as if the Syrian military performed poorly, gradually broke down and melted not as much against an overwhelming rebel military campaign, but by the lack of internal support for the state. It is an old axiom that a state does not fall by the strength of the forces attacking to topple it, but by the lack of those who are willing to defend it.
In the case of Syria, however, in such a frame, this is very far from the reality. Syria was weakened internally, but it eventually fell victim to one of the most systemically designed regional and internal conspiracy.
The fog of war
It is very important to see the rapidly developing sequence of events between 27 November and 7 December clear, to understand what had happened. To answer some key questions. How could a 2-3 million people big city like Aleppo fall in two days, while between 2012 and 2016 the government never lost it completely? What happened to the 50-60 thousand strong Syrian Army contingent that was in the city, and why it never really tried to fight within the city? Why kept the army retreating and never mounted any significant counter attack? How could a 180-200 thousand well armed army with planes, missiles, tanks and Russian support fail against a 10-40 thousand strong armed group? Why did the army withdraw first from Ḥamā and later from Homs, under very suspicious circumstances, or from Dayr az-Zūr, Dar‘ā and Suwaydā’ without any fight? Why was the support from Damascus’ Russian and Iranian allies slow, or ineffective? And how all military action was connected and influenced by a very busy diplomatic activity around Syria and in two separate tracks? One led by Iraq and Iran trying to end the intervention, and one in the Astana format, which at the end suddenly involved Qatar, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and even the Emirates.
It is very important to understand that not only the Western public got confusing and contradicting ideas from the events, but Arab and specifically the Syrian public as well. Right after the fall of Aleppo on 29 November, an unprecedented media campaign was launched, on three different fronts. One in the Western media giving the picture that the “rebel” progress is swift, but organized and all is well, their treatment of the local civil population is good. This was completely “whitewashing” these “rebels”, casually stepping over the fact that the main body of this movement is the so called Hay‘at Taḥrīr aš-Šām is just a renamed version of the an-Nuṣra Front, part of the Islamic State terror organization. Though military details were almost completely ignored. The second on the social media platforms, bombarding the public with events that are to come, or had already occurred, airing clear lies, like the president not being in the country. Overall embedding the idea that the “rebels” will inevitably win, they are everywhere, there is nothing to stop them. Yet the most unexplained until now was the behavior of the state media, the sources close to the state and the military, which kept up a similar pressure, saying that “all is just a disinformation war”, nothing is true, the militants haven’t taken the claimed positions, all is calm and orderly in the cities. This side also kept pushing that the army is holding the lines, all is fine, only to withdraw not long after. And thus “miraculously” fulfilling the previous claims of the “rebels”. And especially after the fall of Ḥamā, it was claimed that this was the result of an infiltration, which requires total secrecy about the details, and communication lines became susceptible to hacking.
This caused a total chaos in the public, creating fear, but also lowering awareness to take up arms, as the similar media war was experienced in 2011. And if the confusion was massive at the public level, it was even greater among the soldiers fighting and winning one day, and withdrawing the other, not knowing what to believe. That is why no orders for withdrawal was ever seriously questioned – or at least it is not known -, and the final order to surrender went very smoothly. Because most of the Army up until the mid-level officers where themselves confused. Mentally exhausted by the conflicting reports, at the end believing that somehow the war was lost.
This media, especially social media war still exists, preventing clarity about the events. Practically nothing is mentioned by the Israeli onslaught and the total destruction of the Syrian Army bases and capabilities, but keep the minds of the people busy with bogus claims about the rescued detainees of the Ṣaydānyā prison, or with footages from the ransacked presidential palace and the toppled statues.
This fog of war between 27 November and 7 December was so intense that our own center with multiple reliable – or so we believed – and local source fell victim to the same campaign. Syria lost this war much more in the minds and the media than by arms.
However, it must be pointed out that all this was clearly well designed. It is impossible to image that hundreds of social media influencers mostly living in Germany and Türkiye could vent the same exact claims right at the same time with perfect harmony, without a designed plan.
The sequence of events
In the early hours of 27 November the terrorist groups bubbled up in Idlib for years suddenly with Turkish backing launched an offensive towards Aleppo, reaching its outskirts.
Despite the military strikes by the Syrian and Russian planes airstrikes against the “rebel” convoys, on 28 November the attack continued. On that day Kiyūmart Pūr-Hāšemī, the most senior Iranian military advisor in Syria, practically the only significant left was killed near Aleppo and the “rebels” stormed the city. The sudden fall of the city to unexplainable, though until the second day it was mostly stated that parts of the city are still resisting. Significantly, the army was mostly pulled back at the afternoon, allegedly not wishing to destroy the city once more, nor risking getting trapped and eliminated. And thus the army redeployed around the city. Interestingly local sources attested that the militants did not storm the city, simply showed up everywhere, in many cases in formal military uniforms and just took over. By night their positions were consolidated by a large number of foreign fighters and Ukrainian troops.
On 29 November the Syrian Army tried to consolidate its positions around Aleppo airport and the suburb of as-Safīra, especially around the military college, where troops were surrounded for the second day. On the other hand the Syrian state launched a diplomatic campaign to gain support and by the help of its allies stop the foreign support for this attack.
On 30 most Syrian Army positions were handed over to the Kurds to protect them and allocate power for a counter offensive, yet they were pulled back, allegedly to save the city from devastation and to preserve civil lives. Though by all indications the frontline was still around Aleppo, the “rebels” started rumors that the army had already pulled back from Ḥamā. Which at that night was clearly not the case, the city and the northern part of the Province was still in government hands.
On December 1 the troops trapped in the Military College in as-Safīra were handed over by an intriguing Turkish-Russian deal, and than the Kurds simply gave up all positions around Aleppo city and province. And what is even more curious, they moved the total Kurdish civili population from Aleppo city and the countryside as well to the east of the Euphrates, while there were realistic chances that the Syrian Army would soon regain the city. According to the leader of Qasad, Maẓlūm ‘Abdī, this was due to an agreement between the United States and the Hay‘at Taḥrīr aš-Šām, at that time still a listed terrorist organization the U.S. led coalition being mandated to fight against.
On December 2 the Syrian Army consolidated its positions in northern Ḥamā and even went into the offensive, while allegedly all terrorist convoys were constantly bombarded by the air forces. Several attacks were repelled around the towns of as-Saqaylbiyya and Maḥarda to the northwest of Ḥamā. For the next two days the center of the fights were held at the town of Qamḥāna directly to the north of Ḥamā.
Until 5 December the Syrian army reinforcements kept pouring into the city and all seemed well. On the night of 4 December most frontlines were reinforced, all terrorist positions were heavily bombarded, by this time from Russian warships as well with advanced missiles. Even more, an alleged parachute operation was carried out against the city of the Hān Šayhūn, cutting all terrorist supplies. Yet on 5 December night the Syrian Army pulled out of the city and redeployed around it, once again claiming that it was to save the civilian population. It was illogical, and was explained semi-officially that some infiltrations have happened that the army wanted to prevent confusion. Insightful sources, however, that night claimed that the army communications were hacked and the army was ordered out of the city by enemy intervention, yet by the time it was understood it was too late. Interestingly, however, the “rebels” did not even try to consolidate their positions in the city and immediately pushed forward, moved ahead directly towards Homs. And here they ran into a cavity along the highway between the two major cities. This is the area of ar-Rastan and Talbīsa, two towns, which were the hotbeds of rebel insurgency during the war, where local fighters only surrendered with a reconciliation agreement. Meaning they kept their arms and in the last few years existed practically beyond the control of the state.
Now they took arms once again. Yet the Syrian Army reorganized around Homs, firmly holding the line and it was expected that this will be the end of the struggle. Not only because, the Syrian Army is well prepared and reinforced around it, but because Homs is different. Unlike in Ḥamā, where loyalties were always questionable, in Homs large parts of the city are inhabited by ‘Alawites and Christians, and even in the Sunni neighborhoods the government support was relatively firm. From internal local source we know for a fact that many residents enlisted to the local militia to fend of any attack, yet they were never mobilized.
On 6 December, until the night of 7 December the lines of the Syrian Army held firm, the “rebels” got trapped in a sack completely bombarded by the air force, the Russian missiles and most importantly by a constant artillery barrage. There was no way for them to move ahead toward Homs, nor to retreat to Ḥamā, as the Syrian Army was still around the city, nor to keep ground under the constant pounding. And it was alleged that the Syrian Army around Ḥamā is not attacking, because it is letting more and more militants to enter the sack, to be eliminated, to objective is only to held the lines. Though it is more than strange that there was not even an attempt to liberate Ḥamā.
Also on that day to other things happened. First conflicting reports appeared that the Syrian Army within a previously drafted agreement withdrew from Dayr az-Zūr and all positions to the east of the capital, only to pull back concentrate on Homs and hand everything over the the Kurdish Qasad troops. Thought the positions were handed over, these news were also denied by the state media, creating a large confusion. The other development was the reactivating insurgency in Dar‘ā and Suwaydā’ from where the following day the Syrian Army withdrew without a fight, though being at least ten thousand strong and having air force support. Allegedly fearing an Israeli attack helping the rebels, which was understandable, as in several occasion during the previous days the Israeli forces did carry out airstrikes against the Syrian Army.
What gave hope to the Syrian state was that on 6 December a triple agreement was reached in Baghdad between Syria, Iraq and Iran pledging support to prevent a terrorist takeover in Damascus. Which signaled that the Syrian Army only has to take pressure for a few days even in the worst case, as soon Iraqi and Irani troops can be sent. But it was too late.
On 7 December until late night this was the situation with constant reports that the militant want to surrender, as their situation is untenable. Up until late night the Syrian Army’s positions held firm and the statement late night by the army confirmed that the army is still around Ḥamā. The “rebels” were looking for a way to retreat all the way to Idlib and give up all their gains. And indeed, surrounded in all sides with no established perimeters or defense lines, they should not have had a chance against a regular and trained army.
The same day a major diplomatic effort started in Doha, bringing together Iran, Russia, Türkiye, Qatar and interestingly the Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia as well, while curiously the Syrian delegation was missing. Here for the first time Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that a normalization between Damascus and Ankara will happen, but also the Russia will keep fighting against terrorism, whatever name it takes. And than suddenly at around midnight a joint statement was issued decreeing the end of all military activities and the immediate beginning of an overall political process to safeguard the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria.
Less than a half an hour later a Syrian Army contingent withdrew and opened a corridor to Homs for the “rebel”. That was the very same one that was defending the section in Ḥamā, only to suddenly retreat and cause the pullback from the city. A tapped communication between the militants held that they themselves don’t understand the situation, as they wanted to run away, until the army “opened the way for them”. Suddenly the militants flooded the streets of Homs, especially the “Alawī and Christians part with loudspeakers, saying that the war is over, they don’t want to hurt anyone, will not hurt anyone and no one should take up arms to prevent bloodshed. Almost immediately the army was ordered to put down arms everywhere in the country, and simply “walk home”. And that indeed what happened. By central order, later attested to President Baššār al-Asad, but never verified, all soldiers of the Syrian Army put down their weapons, handed over their military IDs everywhere to the militant and went home. And miraculously, the militants – losing somewhere between 5000 to 7000 until this point – did not take any revenge, let all soldiers simply walk home.
Since than there is sporadic looting and killing, but largely the militants spread food, increase service, promise to provide a better welfare and stress on ensuring that there will be no violence against any minorities, which was the most feared result of their takeover.
Right after this takeover and the fall of the government the Tel-Aviv regime occupied the entire Golan region, moved its army to the outskirts of Damascus, where it plans to stay, and in a few days with more than 400 hundred airstrikes completely destroyed the Syrian Army’s bases, airports, fleet and air forces. Syria became disarmed, and the militants not only not opposing this, but often actively cooperating.
In conclusion, the Syrian Army did not fall apart, nor was it beaten. It triumphed! Between Ḥamā and Homs it completely eliminated the terrorist organizations previously bubbled up in Idlib, which was the main concern for every party, and was ordered to go home. The country was systematically handed over to a small mercenary force led by Ğūlānī and the groups already embedded in the cities, and than by the Israeli aggression disarmed completely.
Here we will continue next week