War has broken out in Palestine and around Gaza once again, and on a scale not seen since the brutal campaigns in 2008 and 2009. What seemed to be a minor, but useful provocation only a little more than a week ago escalated into a war, which surprised many. Even the current Israeli leadership. That is because, unlike all previous wars, the Palestinians managed to hit back on a shocking scale.
What seemed to be an easy trick rapidly descended into chaos in many parts of the Israeli-occupied areas. And in many areas, the state simply ceased to exist for days, as random vigilante groups started to directly engage with others.
By now the matters started to return to their more conventional, though extremely brutal course. The Israeli state authorities started to regain their control on most areas and launched their horrific campaign against the easiest target, Gaza. The usual brutality by Saturday 15 May spread out against the media offices in Gaza in a vain attempt to block news sources from Gaza.
Regardless of the impressive scale on which the Palestinian factions hit back and launched volleys of missiles – humiliating the Israeli air defenses -, the end result is hardly in question. Yet neither side seems to ready to back down. The Israelis don’t, because they were caught off guard, and both the military and political leadership were humiliated. After all, while they are allegedly fighting an intense war in Syria too – as they say – prevent the Iranian presence there, and provoking Iran in every possible way in a front much closer to the thousands to effective missiles were stockpiled. But the Palestinian side is not much more eager to give concession either.
So far all mediating attempts have failed. Mostly, because neither side is ready to back down. But why is that? While the Palestinians can hardly turn the table around now alone, the Israeli war machine is also not too keen to directly march into Gaza.
The reason, way beyond the war and the brutality, is soberingly plain. Politics. There are elections on both sides. And there is an extreme campaign season in the Holy Land this summer.
The avalanche begins
Like in most of the Middle Eastern conflicts, especially in Palestine, the direct reasons, which start the war soon become forgotten and overlooked by the staggering losses later on. And in a result, all parties eventually recount the events serving their own narratives, which become overlooked, because of their complexity, and because it is clear that these are just the reasons, but not the real motives for the war.
This was the case with the 2006 war between the Israeli army and Lebanon, or with the 2008-9 and 2014 Gaza wars, which were all started for reasons very few can remember now. And this is the case now as well. There is an immediate reason, but that is just the symptom of the growing tension. Nonetheless, these reasons have some importance, because they reflect the nature of this rapidly escalating violence. It shows that this is not at all about the little things, but there are trends clashing with each other.
It all started around the Šayh Ğarrāḥ neighborhood – named after Sultan Saladin’s doctor – in Eastern Jerusalem just north of the Old City. It was a small little village until the 1800s, when started to grow under the Ottoman era as a quite upscale outskirt of Jerusalem, with an almost entirely Muslim population.
After 1948 the area became right next to the border between the Jordanian and Israeli spheres of control, but clearly on the Arab side. Since then, however, Jerusalem grew drastically, and this neighborhood swells too, mostly with Palestinian refugees from areas to the west. In our days, the area is just one of the neighborhoods of Jerusalem, right at the edge between Eastern and Western Jerusalem on the eastern side. But because of the effective Israeli military control of the area, this line is becoming ever more theoretical.
Since the early 2000s, Šayh Ğarrāḥ became one of the many “battlegrounds” between the two struggling communities and a scene of Israeli encroachment over Eastern Jerusalem. Israeli authorities built several settlement in the close vicinity of Šayh Ğarrāḥ, while ran a number of court cases to evict the Palestinian residents, so the properties would be handed over to Jewish settlers having a claim over the area. And since many of the claims go back even to the Ottoman era, the case is full of controversies.
In early May 2021, the Israeli Supreme Court ruled in favor of the settlers in one case and ordered the eviction of six households. This came in an extremely tense atmosphere both in Palestine and all over the region. And here both the reactions of the Israeli state authorities and the settlers are very telling that this is just one of the many small local disputes, when settlers slowly, but adamantly pushing Palestinians out. There are many such examples, but because this is Jerusalem, this has a much bigger magnitude. Right after the court ruling, severe clashes broke out. This again is not something new, but once again, politics intervened. And as usual, for the worse.
Because of the clashes and in fear of growing violence strict measures were introduced in Jerusalem, blocking many entrances and passageways to the Old City. Eventually, even the al-Aqṣā Mosque, the third most sacred place of worship in Islam saw strict measures. The Israeli security forces tried to block worshippers to enter, or on multiple occasions attacked them while leaving the mosque.
The timing could not have been worse, which already suggests that much of what we see was intentional. All this happened in the last days of Ramadan, Islam’s holy month of fasting, in which the Dome of the Rock has special importance for the whole Muslim world, not just for the Palestinians. Especially that 7 May was Jerusalem Day, a day of remembering and solidarity with the Palestinians. This is actually a relatively new custom once launched by Imam Homeīnī in Iran to show support for the Palestinians, marking the late Friday of Ramadan as the day of solidarity. This event has very limited echoes beyond Iran and its allies, but in the currently tense regional climate, it had a big significance.
Within days extreme violence broke out between Israeli security forces and Palestinian Muslims in Jerusalem, because of Šayh Ğarrāḥ and because of the al-Aqṣā Mosque, which latter is still under the legal and moral guardianship of Jordan. But there are fears for the al-Aqṣā Mosque for decades, as extremist groups strive to undermine the privileges surrounding the mosque and even its destruction, only to replace it with the one-day rebuilt Temple. Though officially Tel Aviv denies the accusations that it harbors ideas to destroy the mosque, the fear is very real. Therefore any major clash around automatically and unavoidably invokes huge political consequences. These are not unfounded fears, as it was seen only a few days into the clashes after fires broke out around the mosque that settlers were openly celebrating the destruction on Temple Mountain.
And then it all went loose
Once such videos went viral over the Internet he’ll break out all around Israeli-controlled areas. Not only authorities clashed with Palestinian protestors, but all over the mixed areas local vigilante groups formed op on both sides taking matters into their own hand. Suddenly the Israeli security forces became so overwhelmed that there was no way to hold back the violence. By the 11 May war broke out and not just on the “interior” front, as several Palestinian resistance groups like Ḥamās and the al-Qassām Brigades launched a massive missile campaign. These even reached Tel Aviv downtown and on 14 May Ashkelon was hit and its oil refinery caught fire.
That much was expected by Tel Aviv, but not the scale, when hundreds of missiles are being launched in daily waves, and especially not that they would be successful. For whatever reason, the famed Iron Dome system failed miserably to stop these missiles. Not because it is not functioning. It does repel the big majority of the missiles fired from Gaza, but it is inadequate, as many still get through. And even Israeli analysts admitted that Ḥamās succeeded to surprise Tel Aviv and block daily life in most areas under Israeli control. This comes less than a month after Syria managed to prove successfully how inefficient the Iron Dome is. This is a system, along with the other two major missile defense systems, which were supposed to defend the Israeli-controlled areas from any attack under any circumstances. Huge sums were spent on these projects, which were promised to defense in case of any war, even with Iran. A month ago Syria penetrated it, and now the Palestinians with their limited resources made the whole project look ridiculous.
From that point on, regardless of the surprising Palestinian hits, which are still going on, war broke out and took its “traditional” course. The Israeli army was mobilized and put down most revolts in the mixed areas, while the air force ran deadly bombing campaigns against Gaza. The attack, which caused the biggest international outcry came on 15 May, when the Israelis blew up the building in Gaza, which hosted most international press offices, including al-Jazeera.
This is because it is largely believed that the Israeli leadership tries to silence news revealing the gruesome details of this new war. The shocking details are all over the international press and we don’t wish to get lost in these. There are much bigger matters to be reflected upon. Because it is very telling that in the traditional fashion Egypt – and later America – tried to mediate a ceasefire between the sides, which on 14 May was refused by Tel Aviv. Yet Ḥamās was not keen on stopping the war either, nor to make any concessions. There is a reason for this apparent wish for war.
The war at this point has no objective left, as neither side can gain much from the continuation, apart from widespread destruction. The Palestinian side can surely not keep up the barrage for long, and cannot hope for much else than to wreak havoc amongst the Israelis, which have an effect on the political currents. This points to some sort of settlement sooner or later. However, on the Israeli side, though massive amounts of troops were deployed around Gaza, it was already signaled that there will be no ground assault. Very logically so, as the Palestinian armed groups are clearly prepared for that and are in waiting. A ground assault would not break their determination, and it is clear that the Israeli army can not control this area. Moving in would only lead to losses and possibly captive in their ranks. This is something Netanyahu can not afford now. But even if he could, there is no point moving it. So with all likelihood, the mayhem will continue for some time, after which a ceasefire will come.
The miscalculation
It is important why all this happens now. In this Israeli politics had an overwhelming role, which could have stopped the escalation at Šayh Ğarrāḥ, or anytime along the line.
Since Netanyahu took office for the second time in his carrier in 2009, he managed to stay in power with skillful tactics and lead his Likud party to victory almost all the time. But he could never form a clear majority. After his 2009 victory, which was largely due to the previous Gaza wars, his 2013 cabinet broke up only after two years, and in 2018 his next coalition again. Since then four early Israeli elections were held. In the first two Netanyahu managed to win, but could not form a stabile government. His main rival, the haphazardly created Blue White Coalition led by former Defense Minister and Chief to the General Staff Benny Gantz was gaining on him, and on the 2019 September elections even won. But Netanyahu was skillful enough to repel this threat by forming, and eventually dismantling a coalition government with his rival. This was so successful that the trend turned around and in March 2021 the Blue-White parts only became fourth. Marking the end of this new formation. However, the last elections also showed that there is a trend favoring the liberal forces, and Netanyahu could not form a government yet again. On 4 May Netanyahu’s time to form a government ran out, so Israeli President Rivlin tasked the leader of the opposition Yair Lapid to form a government. Talks were looking promising between the opposition parties when suddenly the current war broke out.
An interesting detail that in this last election the parties in favor of Netanyahu and those utterly against him – regardless of the ideological boundaries – practically ended up in a tie. And since this was the fourth – technically the fifth – early election in a row, there is a huge need for a change. The tip of the scale in the United Arab List, which managed to perform surprisingly well. Whomever they would endorse could win the race. Two weeks ago it seemed that this Arab party will join the forces against Netanyahu, but under the current circumstances, they can simply not enter any Israeli government. That would be a political and for many members a very direct suicide.
If the current opposition cannot form a government soon there will be new elections. And from here we can understand that Netanyahu played a very dangerous gamble even before the elections. He was constantly provoking a major confrontation, which would elevate him to the level of national savior, a role Netanyahu always excelled in. As this gamble failed against Iran and backfired with Syria he needed a new trick.
It cannot be proven, of course, only very probable, but the Supreme Court’s decision about the Šayh Ğarrāḥ neighborhood did not come so very handy by chance. The outbreak of violence was easily foreseeable and Netanyahu could count some sort of war with Gaza. Yet the missile barrage from Ḥamās clearly surprised and very openly humiliated him. But this is not necessarily for his undoing. If he can run the war long enough, he can exploit the state of emergency to sabotage the opposition in forming a government, and run nationalistic fervor high enough to win the next election.
It is a very dangerous and blatantly cynical gamble, but one which worked many times before for Netanyahu. This outlines his strategy, in which he cannot commit to a land operation in Gaza, because there is a risk of humiliation losses, with nothing to gain. Also, he cannot just end the war now. He needs to prolong it for interior purposes and needs some sort of victory or an image of being stern.
The Palestinian gamble
It is easy to see that beyond the on the ground confusion the steps of Tel Aviv are motivated by political calculations. But the same can be told on the Palestinian side. For the first time in 15 years, there are general elections to be held this year in the Palestinian Authority. This was originally scheduled to 29 April, but President Maḥmūd ‘Abbās postponed it to a later date citing difficulties in Jerusalem and several other areas. It is still not clear when this election would take place, but has to be soon.
It should be kept in mind that even in 2006 ‘Abbās’ Fataḥ lost the elections against Ḥamās, and ‘Abbās was not even the prime candidate to lead the state. It was only due to skillful manipulation and a desperate internal struggle eventually leading to an all-out war that ‘Abbās managed to sideline his main party rival Fārūq al-Qaddūmī, and later take over the West Bank from Ḥamās. The last fifteen years were anything but successful for ‘Abbās, who obviously lost most of the support even within his own party, let alone in the general Palestinian public opinion. There is a very real need for change, and because of ‘Abbās failure this current favors the stronger, more radical elements. We indicated before that the most potent candidate on the horizon is Muḥammad Daḥlān a former Fataḥ strongman, who since then became one of the closest advisors and handyman to the Emirati leadership. And because recently the Emirates formed a tacit, but a formal alliance with Tel Aviv, the constellation seemed perfect to groom Daḥlān to be the next president. Unless opinions are changed drastically.
Since this new war broke out there is a striking difference in reactions. ‘Abbās, who in recent years seemed ever more weak and isolated, and recently managed to cause huge scandal cutting most of his foreign support even, has practically no reaction. If we said that the Israeli authorities lost control over the streets that is much more true to the Palestinian Authority. Ḥamās, however, not only surprised Tel Aviv, but also the whole region scoring multiple victories with just one campaign. Its leader, Ismā‘īl Haniyya, after his shocking blunders in the so-called “Arab Spring”, proved that he was not only talking when he said that he is prepared for a new confrontation. Now he seems to be a strong leader, one the resistance can count on. Yet it might not be a coincidence that he hasn’t been assassinated yet. And since obviously much of the missile stockpile came from abroad, this shows that he has outer partners. It also shows that the regional attitude seeming to be dominant in the last months of Trump, the one going for normalization failed. This undermines the Emirati support in Palestine weakening Daḥlān and his followers and give Haniyya credit. But only if he can prove successes. So far that aim was achieved, regardless of the staggering losses in lives. That is why Haniyya and the Ḥamās leadership would favor a ground battle in Gaza because any success there would increase Haniyya’s chances a lot.
A region on halt
It is interesting to note that while Ḥamās is gaining its biggest successes against the Israeli occupation there is little pressure from the regional states. As if this all came as a surprise to them as well. Which is unlikely.
There have been claims by Tel Aviv that missiles were launched from Lebanon and Syria as well in recent days, but this was not confirmed independently. Indeed we see nothing on the scale that would suggest that Iran, Syrian, or the Ḥizb Allah are joining the struggle. Though with the current result by the Palestinians this is surely tempting. The Israeli mistakes attract intervention. Just as the current war broke out Iranian Foreign Minister Ẓarīf traveled to Damascus to assess the situation, but not much else was revealed later. Though it should be kept in mind that there are elections in both countries very soon.
Nonetheless, there are major changes in the regional balance now. Recently Saudi Arabia not only started intensive negotiations with Iran, but launched a diplomatic mission to Damascus too, and started rapprochement with the Syrian leadership. The current war will soon further delegitimize the normalization process started under Trump and the Emirates will be even more isolated with its approach. So the region has this in mind, much more than the war on Gaza, which has an already calculable outcome.
Overall, while there are already 9 victims on the Israeli and 197 on the Palestinian side – as of 16 May – with serious material damages for both, the current war is sadly not about these losses. It is deep-rooted in the general Palestinian-Israeli antagonism. Yes! And it was sparked by deliberate provocations. Indeed! But this is about politics. Desperate internal struggles on both sides to be proven strong and win elections. And sadly the length of this war will be determined by these calculations.