Last time we already saw mysterious explosions hitting Iraq for weeks, which is causing ever more tension in the Iraqi politics. Prime Minister ‘Ādil ‘Abd al-Mahdī was already in a delicate situation, caught between parties in one hand, and between the Americans and the Iranians on the other, as he tried hard to cover up the incidents and solve it discreetly with Washington. Yet at the and he had to resort to ground all American flights, which still haven’t solved his problem, as yet a fourth explosion from the same kind hit the country. And newer developments further push the whole region into a possible conflict, by which ‘Abd al-Mahdī can do little, but to go along with the current now.
Since than it became practically clear, both by Netanyahu and the Americans, that Tel Aviv was behind the hits. That already put Washington in an impossible situation, where in one hand they have an obligation to Iraq to defend it by mutual defense treaty from any foreign aggression, while on the other hand they defended Israel’s move, pronouncing it as “self defense”. But the matter did not stop here, as Netanyahu, desperate to win the next scrap elections, started yet another wave of attacks in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Palestine. Once again the noticeable rift between Trump and his team became clear. While those around him, namely Pompeo and Vice President Pence openly took the Israelis’ side and did their best to taunt Iran, Trump reached out to Tehran to calm the situation as things are spiraling out of hand. That move by Trump already unnerved Israel, as Netanyahu does his best to aggravate the situation to point of war. The Israeli government’s behavior, which always used some sort of self instigated regional conflict to pump up tension before elections, is so reckless now, it is almost as Netanyahu now lives with the famous quote: “Cry, ‘havoc’! And let slip the dogs of war!”
The response for a while only manifested in words. Ḥasan Naṣr Allah, in his usual style promised retaliation. But this time he is far from being alone. The Lebanese government, and in a totally unprecedented unity, firmly expressed that the last provocation from Tel Aviv is declaration of war and thought not standing behind Ḥizb Allah, clearly signed that this time Beirut takes the matter extremely seriously. Iraq witnessed similar uproar as political parties openly demand immediate American withdrawal. The Iranian military, and from its most famous hero, Qāsem Soleymānī also warned the Israelis. So far the Syrians, already quite busy in Idlib and with the Turks, stayed silent, but surely will not let such clear aggressions go without response. Especially if all the allies move now. Netanyahu plays with fire now, but what really happened and what can he be betting on?
An attack in Lebanon
After weeks of escalating tension Netanyahu decided hit all his opponents in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq at once, before moving on to his usual trick, stirring up tension in Gaza. Since the three attacks came almost at the same time they are practically inseparable, but for the sake of comprehension we discuss it county by country.
On Saturday night, 24 August 2019 two drones closed on the tv station of Ḥizb Allah, the infamous al-Manār in the southern district of Beirut, which is one of the firmest stronghold of the resistance movement in the whole country. One blew itself up causing substantial material damage, but not victims. The other was initially claimed to be only an observational drone, but later assessments suggest that it intended to hit a target, but was either downed by locals, or my malfunction. One might think it is not a major operation, since no victims were claimed. Compared to other Israeli precision hits, always going after valued targets, this indeed seems minor. However, since 2006 there was an unofficial conduct between Ḥizb Allah and Israel, not to target each other directly, and whenever that happened outside of Lebanon, the retaliation from the resistance movement was always swift and resolute. In his last speech before the hits Ḥasan Naṣr Allah touched this subject stating that Israel knows well this unpronounced code of conduct and doesn’t dare to breach it, knowing the consequences. So this time not really the caused damage is important, but that Netanyahu openly dared Ḥizb Allah. Which is by these special circumstances is in a form a declaration of war.
The hit in Syria
The same night of 24 August, like so many times before, Israel launched an open aggression on Syrian soil without any provocation. And aerial bombardment was launched on the capital Damascus, in the southern outskirt of ‘Aqrabā by 8 land based missiles. By the Syria side’s claim the attack was unsuccessful, as the Syrian Air Defense thwarted all missiles. This seems to be true, as the
Israelis used ahold footages to support their claim that they managed to hit their intended target, which stayed undisclosed and mysterious for while. Yet a day later, and that is where their attacks in Lebanon and Syria are inseparable, Ḥasan Naṣr Allah in his speech on 25 August responding to the events acknowledged that two fighters of Ḥizb Allah died in ‘Aqrabā by the hands of the Israelis. Though he did not elaborate on the circumstances, it was later learned that not the areal bombardment killed them. That was only a smokescreen. While the Syrian Air Defense was busy neutralizing the missiles a drone – or possibly more – hit the Ḥizb Allah’s compound – a dormitory by Ḥasan Naṣr Allah’s claim -, and that operation caused the deaths. Which is characteristic of Israeli assassination operations. If that is true, and so far only lightly disputed by the Israelis themselves, it indicates that Tel Aviv is clearly after Ḥizb Allah, its most formidable and resolute opponent in the region.
The Syrian government renounced the attack, but since it did not directly hit it and since the Syrian Army is busy in Idlib to deal with the surrounded Turkish compound in Mūrik and laying the ground to carry on the offensive in the province, Damascus has little time to react. But there is another side of this seemingly puzzling silence. As so many times before, Israel hit Syria right after a major Syrians victory to salvage some of the militants moral and positions, and also to provide support for a retaliation. Which indeed came, and was repelled, as the militants tried hard of Sunday and Monday to regain some of their recently lost territories. Therefore the two things, the actions of the militants and the Israeli attack are one and the same thing. As the Syrian allies are now busy to deal with Israel, the Syrian Army is handling the militants, which is the more pressing side for Damascus.
A new hit in Iraq
Almost as a clear sign of defiance, regardless of the aggravation in Iraq, the Israelis poured gas on the fire by hitting a compound – once again belonging to the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī – at the al-Qā’im border crossing with Syria. Initial reports talked about tens of deaths in the ranks of popular forces both on the Iraqi and Syrian sides, but later assessments “only” confirmed two death on the side of the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī, including a major field commander, Abū ‘Alī ad-Dabbī. Leader of the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī blew up it fury and demanded immediate response, themselves also claiming this as a declaration of war, and they demanded immediate Americans withdrawal from Iraq. This claim was further supported by Qāsem Soleymānī, head of the Pāsdārān’s Qods Forces, who stated that: “these insane operations are the last mistakes of the Zionist Entity.”
This attack, however, has a very interesting spin in it, which reveals the whole regional dimension of this spiraling out proxy war. The drones attacking the border crossing came from within Syria, from a compound run by the Syrian Democratic Forces (Qasad), which is heavily sponsored both by Saudi Arabia and Israel. Yet at the same time they enjoy the unlimited support of Washington as a guarantor for their influence with a dozen of illegal American army bases in Eastern Syria. It is impossible that Qasad would have dared – let alone capable – launching such reckless attack – in which they had little interest -, without previous American approval. Yet on the other hand, it very much seems like an act of curtesy, at least to some American circles, ahead of an imminent Turkish attack, which goes on absolutely coordinated with the Americans. Now, considering Qasad has no chance to stand ground alone against the Turks, it is highly illogical that they would have started another front. While it is fitting that they would have done a favor, so at the end the Americans can mitigate the effect of the Turkish offensive.
If this angle is true that means a complete cooperation and military level coordination between Washington, Riyadh and Tel Aviv. That might seem impossible by some, yet here we should remind our readers to the “deal of the century” and that Muḥammad ibn Salmān himself is forming very close ties with Israel now. And while Riyadh did not react directly to the claim, its vassal, Bahrain did via its foreign minister claiming that the Israeli attack were act of self defense against Iran and they are absolutely fine. Such is a step in impossible with at least passive support by Saudi Arabia.
The reaction
Political reactions from all countries concerned, except as explained Syria, were surprising swift and clear. Even refreshing in the world of politics. The Iraqi Parliament’s special commission, the Iraqi Security Committee was discussing the mysterious explosions the suspicious American build-up, thought that later one was attributed to the renewed operations in Syria. Already before this massive barrage the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī warned the Americans to leave the country immediately, and a number of political factions being part of the National Mobilization in one way or the other openly discussed such possibilities accusing the Americans with cooperation with Israel against Baghdad. One of such was the ‘Alī al-Yāsirī, leader of the Sarāyā al-Hurasānī – a group founded in 1995 and since 2015 part of the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī -, who said that the Israeli drones took of from American bases within Iraq. He suggested that in response the Popular Mobilization will form its own Air Defense Directorate, which will take over on its own the air defense of the country. Which will further antagonize the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī’s relation with the government.
‘Abd al-Mahdī, while reaffirming that the Iraqi forces can and shall respond to any foreign aggression, it seems that he is trying to keep the previous line and solve the matter politically and with he help of some regional intermediaries. Yet his main problem is not only political, since he is completely caught between Washington and Tehran, both regionally and with domestic implications, but even militarily, since the Iraqi Army has not military radar system. All their knowledge either comes from the civilian traffic control – hardly satisfactory against precision attacks -, or from the American troops, who now seem to support the very aggression, which is causing the problem. So even though the PM grounded all American planes that doesn’t solve the matter and now only dissatisfaction is growing. That already reached high levels with a very pressing political angle, as both Vice President Nūrī al-Mālikī, both member of the Iraqi Security Council, Karīm ‘Alawī openly speak about Israeli involvement and demand direct retaliation. So by now this is not just about al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī.
Things were in motion in Iraq even before the last set of operations, since on 23 August 2019 the al-Ḥašd aš-Ša‘abī already chased away a drone above Baghdad surveilling a military complex. Which indicates that ever more this resistance movement will resort less on the defense the county can provide, but much rather on its own capabilities and on Iranian friends, further deteriorating Baghdad’s position. Yet on Iraqi scenery the most revealing and perhaps most serious response came not from the Iraqis, but from Iran. Apart from the usual political statements and the official governmental line supporting Baghdad, it is interesting to see that Moḥsen Reẓā’ī, Chairman of the Expediency Council on 25 August denied that Israel would be targeting Iranian positions in Iraq. That might seem little and uninteresting, but Reẓā’ī is one of the founding member of the Pāsdārān. He started his career in the Pāsdārān’s intelligence unit until he was made Chief-of-Staff there, which position he held until 1997. He retired from the military to the Expediency Council, but in 2015 he returned to the Pāsdārān. So his words have special political and military implications as he is member of the political circles closest to the Supreme Leader, yet all his career link him to the most capable military force in Iran. And since he speaks on regional politics very rarely, this comes now as a significant message as Iran is not yet directly hit by Israel, but its interests are and Tehran will take action.
The most significant response, however, came from Ḥizb Allah. On 25 August Ḥasan Naṣr Allah held yet another speech, where he put all the Israeli attacks into context, including those in Damascus. He revealed that the Israeli attack in ‘Aqrabā a day before did not target Iranian troops, but a center – by his words a dormitory – belonging to Ḥizb Allah, and two martyrs fell. As a response he promised that all Israeli drones and planes in the Lebanese airspace will be taken down, and he also promised direct retaliation to Israel. Though a week later, on 31 August he specified that taking all drones down might be difficult and counterproductive as this way Israel can assess the resistance’s defense capabilities, but all planes will count as legitimate target and Ḥizb Allah might take down any.
The statements by Ḥasan Naṣr Allah can never be taken lightly as the resistance movement always fulfilled such threats in the past, but this time time it was further reiterated by President Mīšāl ‘Aūn and PM Sa‘ad al-Ḥarīrī. Regardless of the sometimes severe political divisions among them, this time both regarded the Israeli attack as “declaration of war”, and the PM already contacted the UN to hold Tel Aviv fully responsible. This goes beyond political statements now, thought that is still significant as the most prominent representative of the Lebanese Sunnis took the side of Ḥizb Allah, as the Lebanese Army itself on 28 August started to take down Israeli drones at the border. So what decades of Lebanese politics failed to do, this time Netanyahu achieved by uniting the different political and sectarian groups for a common cause.
The threats by the Ḥizb Allah were surely taken seriously by Israel, as the IDF practically withdrew from the border area, ordered a no-fly zone in the north and put out dummies to be baits for a possible Lebanese attack. Netanyahu spoke very reassured of himself telling Ḥasan Naṣr Allah to calm down, but clearly the army took the issue much more seriously. And that shows a division in the Israeli politics. Not only the Lebanese, the Iraqis and the Iranians suggested that this is just yet another desperate maneuver by Netanyahu to win the next election, but similar voices were aired with some level of worry from Israelis as well. Right after the first wave of attack former Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon said that Netanyahu is exploiting these attack solely for inner political purposes and the possibility of retaliation already put the Israeli Defense Council on high alert.
All these factors put together we still have to ask why Netanyahu started this new wave of attacks. One possible explanation is of course that he is gearing up for the elections in which he has to appear as a strong defender of the country. Since Israel is already engaged in a regional Cold War the time is simply not appropriate for a major change. He of course has personal deliberations in the matter as he faces corruption charges and if he loses the elections he might just very soon end up in prison. Like it happened already with some of his predecessors. But for this strategy to work in the larger political scene he has to provide an excuse, and direct reason for the attacks, not to appear irresponsible putting the country in danger. Especially if a retaliation does come and prove to be humiliating. That story was raised soon by Amos Yadlin, former Defense Minister and Chief of Military Intelligence, now leading the National Security Institute. He claimed that there is a regional Cold War between Iran and Israel within the American-Russian competition, and the Pāsdārān directly by Qāsem Soleymānī was preparing a major attack on Israel. This attempt was learned about and prevented with a set of preemptive strikes in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
If such an idea would prove to be true, it would still make Netanyahu a reasonable and responsible leader even if the repercussions are serious, because whatever the cost Tel Aviv had to defend itself. This resonated well with the usual Western defense for Israel, as it has its right to defend itself and would put all the blame even after a possible escalation on the other side. This possibility was clearly renounced by the Iraqis, the Syrians, the Lebanese and the Iranians themselves and indeed it is unlikely that at the height of regional disputes and still somewhat hopeful negotiations with the Europeans to salvage some parts of the JCPOA Tehran would set up such a major operation. Two other things seem to contradict the official Israeli line here as well. The first is, as we shall see, that at the same time Israel reopened the Gaza front as well, which is much more usual in election times in Israel. The other is that a major Iranian attack would unlikely to come from all fronts at the same time, since such a large scale operation cannot be kept secret, Iraq does not need to be part of it and the time is not opportune for Tehran now.
One detail, however, is significant, regardless of the reasons and that is apparent in the reactions as well, even if the official Israeli story is mostly false. When Ḥasan Naṣr Allah reflected on the attacks in Lebanon and Syria he was obviously furious, well beyond the level, which seems reasonable by the results and he admitted that the resistance has a facility in Damascus. This is something new and the purpose of this installation is still unclear. Yadlin claimed that the Israeli intelligence managed to penetrate Ḥizb Allah or the Iranians and they managed to hit a sensitive target in Damascus. That seem to match with the fury of Ḥizb Allah, but also indicated that if a response comes, it has to contain a similar message. That the other side is also capable of reaching sensitive targets, not just some outlying military position and their intelligence is in still in the same league with the Israeli’s.
Gas poured on the fire
After the attack on 24 August and the previous ones in Iraq tensions were high. Lebanese, Syrian and Iraqi politicians might had direct accusations against Israel, just like hints for American involvement, but we should not forget that at this stage these were only accusations. After the first barrage political acknowledgement was still missing, just like clear proof to make the case more convincing for the general global audience. Netanyahu was still lightly hinting involvement in his statement in Ukraine, not directly admitting the operation, but a much clearer picture soon appeared. On 25 August Secretary of the State Mike Pompeo called Netanyahu to reassure him that by Washington’s point of view Israel had the right to defend itself and for that America will always be supportive. Pompeo only reflected on the attack in Syria, but seeing the things clearly connected that means American support for the operation in Lebanon as well. And if someone was still wondering whether this support included the Iraqi strikes as well, on 26 August American Vice President Mike Pence had a similar conversation with Netanyahu. By this time there was already a fresh attack in Iraq as well, so the implication that the message included the Iraqi operations too is inescapable. The Israeli press gave high importance to these messages, and by these it was clear even formally that Israel was hitting all these targets, claiming to be Iranian positions.
That is a very clear trajectory. Cooperation between Netanyahu and the most hawkish circles of the American leadership to bring the situation to the brink of war right at the time when Iran was bargaining hard with the Europeans to keep the nuclear deal alive. It was in fact so effective that Trump took a surprising, yet from him not uncharacteristic turn, and gave signs of his readiness to truly negotiate with Tehran and cool tensions. He was indeed put in a very inconvenient position as his Vice President was defending Israel at a time when accusations not just against Tel Aviv were sharp in Iraq, but against Washington as well. Meaning that now indeed the US is supporting the Israelis in their aggression against Iraq, when they by treaty should supposed to defend it. And that inevitably put them in a course where if Baghdad demands immediate American evacuation the US has little leverage to defend its position. Since, whoever hit these Iraqi bases formally belonging the the Iraqi Army, so the Americans are not simply incapable to defend them, but might even give support. And in the light how Trump regarded the Iraqi sovereignty before that is indeed a very fitting and scandalous picture.
Netanyahu made sure by this support to fully exploit the situation. Since the beginning of August 2019 the fuel supply to Gaza – only possible via Israel by now, being cut from all other sides – was shrinking and cross-border skirmishes were becoming more frequent. Then on 25 August – so after the Israeli strikes on Syria and Lebanon – allegedly three rockets were fired from Gaza causing no damage. In response Netanyahu ordered the fuel supply to the zone to be cut by half, and on 26 August air raids were conducted. The same day Israeli planes hit the compound of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in Lebanon in the al-Biqā‘ valley. The group – though by now one of the less significant ones – was for long supported by Syria and the base is in a place sensitive for Ḥizb Allah. Therefore it was a clear slap for the Palestinians, Lebanese and the Syrians, in one way as a response to Ḥasan Naṣr Allah’s speech, and on the other further pushing Lebanese politics into confrontation, as this time target was not Ḥizb Allah.
These Israeli strikes are hard to be read to be anything else than provocations for a major escalation. Thought this way Netanyahu could appear strong in the domestic front, now clearly proving American support for his actions. But it is noticeable that the last wave of attacks even officially had nothing to do with Iran, which further suggest that the whole campaign has much more to do with the elections than with real threats from Tehran.
They were really not joking
After such blatant aggression both on Ḥizb Allah directly and on Lebanon, a very sensitive subject for the resistance movement, it was clear that some sort of retaliation had to come. And in a level proving that Ḥizb Allah with or without Iranian support stands a match in the intelligence level. All was let to wonder what the response might be and it was likely that some time will past until Ḥizb Allah plans an appropriate revenge. But the response came faster than anyone would have thought.
On 1 September 2019 Ḥizb Allah hit back. On the Israeli 899 road, connecting the settlement of Yir’on with the Avivim Military Base only few kilometers away from the Lebanese border two Israeli Merkavas were hit. One destroyed and the other one seriously hit. The initial reports supported by footages claimed – though denied by Israel – that several Israeli soldiers were killed, one among them was Lieutenant General Aviv Kochavi, head of Israeli Northern Command. Even the evacuation attempts failed as the sent helicopters had to perform emergency landing in fear of being destroyed.
The Israelis instantly hit back to the Lebanese side at Mārūn ar-Ra’s causing material damage and ordered a complete news blockout on the details, yet they acknowledged the attack on them. Tel Aviv might downplayed the significance of the attack, but it was definitely serious as the following day a crew of RT Arabic easily crossed the Lebanese border at the Avivim Base finding it completely abandoned. The signs indicated that is was not evacuated, but rapidly left as even weapons were found laying around in the base. The Israeli Military admitted the base to be abandoned. Now whether General Kochavi was killed or not – something yet to be confirmed – several things are significant. Just like Ḥasan Naṣr Allah promised, the attack came and directly in the occupied territories, where the Israelis felt themselves invulnerable. The attack came at broad daylight and in a position the Israelis did not expect it. That already proves that Ḥizb Allah also has impressive intelligence capabilities, which is just further underlined if they managed to reach General Kochavi. In any case that is a serious warning that the other side is just as capable, especially that so far still not the strongest partner in the resistance hit back. For now it seems to be over, but not the regional Cold War.
It is not over
On 1 September the American Air Force struck a number of targets in Syria’s Idlib province causing a multiple civilian deaths. The Americans did not warn nor Russia, nor Turkey and hit target along the ceasefire line unilaterally imposed only the day before by the Syrian Army after fresh gains.
Since that is an area where the Americans were so far inactive and by their claims hit al-Qā‘ida positions – that probably means an-Nuṣra -, which was none of their concern so far, the strike hold a number of messages. In one hand to the Syrians, not to be content with their progress in Idlib. In the other that they still serious about the Eastern territories. It might also try to drive a wedge between them and the Russians, since despite the S-400 system they did not manage to defend them. It undoubtedly held a message to the whole axis of resistance that Washington supports Israel firmly and if the proxy war between Israel and Iran escalates it will not sit idly by.
The implications are huge. It shows that some circles of the American leadership want escalation even before the elections next year. Even though they are losing their positions in the region they want to put up a fight. Put looking the results it is clear the the axis of resistance, not only Iran is getting more and more positions in the region and we are soon to see major shifts in the regional equation.