On 11 June the Israeli military bombarded once again Lebanon and killed four members of Ḥizb Allah, including senior front commander Ṭālib Sāmī ‘Abd Allah, otherwise known in the organization as “al-Ḥāğ Abū Ṭālib”. He has been the highest ranking Ḥizb Allah commander Tel Aviv assassinated since the war against Gaza broke out in October 2023.
This has been hardly an isolated incident, as the Lebanese organization has been very active in supporting the Palestinian resistance against the Israeli forces both by allowing them to carry out operations from Lebanese territories otherwise controlled by Ḥizb Allah, and by hitting Israeli positions hard all along the border. So hard in fact that the Israeli armed forces had to evacuate most of the settlements in the north and even much of its military facilities, though far from all of them. On the other hand the Israeli forces kept a heavy bombardment against the Lebanese south and occasionally targeting Ḥizb Allah positions. This last chapter of this war of attrition between the two sides, however, reached a similar turning point, as the Israeli bombardment against the Iranian embassy in Damascus.
Since this incident the statements by the Israeli officials about continuing the war with a second phase against Lebanon have multiplied, even though the war in Gaza reached a bloody quagmire and the “war cabinet” of Netanyahu has collapsed.
Yet on a surprising twist, practically doubling down of the Israeli threats on 18 June Ḥizb Allah shared a footage taken by its “Hudhud (Hoopoe)” drone that flew all over the northern parts Palestine and the port of Haifa. And in his speech the following day Ḥizb Allah Secretary General Ḥasan Naṣr Allah made clear indications about what the footage means and that the organization is very much prepared for a war, if that was about to come.
It seems neither side is willing to back down. And since Netanyahu is in desperate need of continuing the war, things might get out of control very fast. And though the Americans are talking about all efforts taken to prevent the escalation, the chance of an even bigger open war has never been closer since October.
Just how deeply the image has been damaged?
A significant result of the war against Gaza in the last 9 months is how deeply it deteriorated Tel Aviv’s image and relations in the Arab world. And in two ways. Militarily and politically.
The Trump administration made huge efforts to secure Arab allies to Tel Aviv, thus making it not solely reliant on Americans and Western supplies, but sustainable by its relations in the region. The Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco were the most important to join, but there were indications of other states following suit. Saudi Arabia was the most openly suggested next step. At the same time the list of Arab states still openly defying this trend became limited to a handful, with otherwise very limited influence. All that was based on American pressure, primarily economically, and underlined by the idea that Tel Aviv is invincible military, therefore there little alternative to coexistence.
The image of absolute military supremacy has been shattered. Not as much by what happened on 8 October, but by the fact that after 9 month the Israeli military heavily complains about the lack of clear plans, it cannot function without constant American resupply and that it became bogged down in a long and atrocious war in Gaza. That was foreseeable, as the whole Israeli military machine was designed for short and overwhelming wars sweeping aside any resistance in a very limited time to obtain a ceasefire. It does not have the manpower for long wars of attrition, as the workforce is needed in the economy, and it does not have the industrial capacity to hold on, especially when trade is paralyzed and supplies are not constant.
But for quite some time the political incentive was unharmed that despite the current setback the long term plan of a mutually beneficial coexistence is still worthwhile. By now, however, the relations are so bad by in Morocco for example, local support of the normalization has collapsed, though Morocco was possible the biggest victories of the process.
Another interesting thing is that by now not only in Algeria, but even in Tunisia, television programs openly express support for Lebanon and Palestine, which was never the norm in this level.
These points are significant, as the Tel Aviv has became more isolated than it was even ten years ago, before the normalization. It lacks the capacity to fight an even more demanding prolonged war in Lebanon, and that would devastate its position in the region even more.
The sharp eyed Hudhud
On 18 June Ḥizb Allah’s war correspondence published a video under the title: “what the Hoopoe came back with?”.
The Hoopoe, in Arabic Hudhud is a reconnaissance drone even Ḥasan Naṣr Allah did not want to reveal what is exactly. Whatever it is, it flew undisturbed into the Israeli airspace and took long hours of footages before returning unharmed into Lebanon.
Allegedly the footage is only a short excerpt from hours of videos taken by the Hudhud, which not only shared very detailed footages from all northern Palestine and the port of Haifa, but also detailed the operational and some seemingly abandoned buildings with all their purposes. Meaning the organization has very substantial knowledge about the area, not just images.
The footage also shows Iron Dome batteries, signaling that the Israeli air defense does not see, or does not recognize this tool. Which so far only took videos, but could carry much more significant payload as well. The videos also showed the port of Haifa, the oil storages and the weapon depots there, which mean that Ḥizb Allah knows exactly what to hit and where to cripple the Israeli economy and the main gate of the Israeli supplies, especially since the southern port of Eilat is practically out of service.
The Hudhud, the fact that it came back unharmed became a sensation in the Arab news and proved that Ḥizb Allah is truly not shooting randomly. It knows where the critical targets are, it knows what they are and has the means to hit it. And that is something Ḥasan Naṣr Allah also acknowledged saying that during the last few months it concentrated on making the border reconnaissance blind and deft align. And thus the possibility that in a war the forwards bases and airports would not be safe to use is a real concern.
“What needed to arrive has arrived”
One other interesting note of the speech was that Ḥasan Naṣr Allah for the first time openly about something we have indicated many times before. That is the biggest reason why Tel Aviv not only kept up its constant air strikes against Syria, but has even intensified it since 2020, even though the result of the war against Damascus has become completely clear. Tel Aviv started this campaign in 2011 to enable the collapse of the Syrian state that would eventually give way to a handful of insignificant political entities within Syria squabbling against each other, effectively securing this section of the border. This effort was intensified since Damascus gave up its chemical arsenal, the only possible deterrent it had against such blatant aggressions, but somewhat cooled down due to Russian pressure. But under the pretext of growing Iranian influence over Syria raising the suspicions of Moscow about a possibly uncomfortable rival the campaign intensified once more in the last few years.
Here we have suggested that behind the pretext of fighting against the Iranian presence in Syria, the real reason behind a constant and sometimes totally random airstrikes by Tel Aviv was that the Israeli leadership knew, or at least heavily suspected that something is on the way from Iran to Ḥizb Allah.
Now Ḥasan Naṣr Allah completely acknowledged this scenario, calling it a “battle between two wars”, as Tel Aviv was trying to prevent the delivery of something. Yet he clearly said, “what needed to arrive has arrived”. What that parcel is? He did not say specifically, for very understandable reasons. But he did say that Ḥizb Allah has precision missiles and even improved them. It started to produce them locally. He stated that Ḥizb Allah has all the drones it might need and also started to produce them. The war of attrition in the last few months has shown that indeed the organization has the technology and the sufficient supplies to conduct a longer war.
Ḥasan Naṣr Allah also stated that much of its newest weapons has been tested, even improved, but there are things that have been used. This would indicate that by “what needed to arrive”, he did no mean offensive missiles. So that can be either more advanced anti-naval missiles, or sophisticated air defense. It is hard to tell at this point, but whatever it might be, and about that Tel Aviv surely has a good guess, it is worrisome enough to make Tel Aviv hesitant.
We should also consider that the Hoopoe footage and the latest Ḥasan Naṣr Allah speech came at a time, when Washington temporarily held up one of its military supplies deliveries. Which caused hysterical reactions by Netanyahu, claiming that this complication undermines the Israeli operations in Rafaḥ.
Meaning that a time, when Ḥizb Allah signals that it is ready to fight, has sufficient supplies and the production capacity to supply a longer war, the Israeli military already faces serious shortages in manpower and supplies and has reached a point where it cannot function without constant resupply from the U.S.
This might not make Netanyahu think twice before a new war, but explains why Washington is trying – at least apparently – to hold him back.
An even more alarming warning
The end of Ḥasan Naṣr Allah’s speech held an even more significant warning about this possible war, but this time not at all to Tel Aviv. The Secretary General turned to Cyprus stating that it is known by Ḥizb Allah that in recent years the Israeli military has been using areas in the island with similar geography to that of Southern Lebanon to train for a possible new war. Also that the other aim of these drills is to eventually use Cypriot bases and airports for a campaign against Lebanon, knowing that most of the forward bases and airports might come under fire by the drones and missiles of Ḥizb Allah.
According to Ḥasan Naṣr Allah this matter has been raised by Lebanese officials to the Cypriot president visiting Beirut during the last few months, who denied any such involvement. Nonetheless in his speech the Ḥizb Allah Secretary General now openly warned that in case of a war these bases will be considered as legitimate targets, and Cyprus will be regarded as part of the war, unless these positions remain closed for Tel Aviv. This is the first time Ḥizb Allah issued a threat against party that is overall not considered within the circle of the conflict.
This warning caused panic in Nicosia, and the Cypriot officials rushed to state that there is no possibility that any Cypriot lands, or installations would ever be used against Lebanon, meaning Ḥizb Allah here. Especially that in such a case the Cypriot military would not be in the position to seriously counterattack, nor has the political will to get involved in the conflict.
That is exactly what makes such a warning curious, knowing that not only Cyprus, as an EU member state has a weak military force, but it is not in a political position to seriously reject pressure from Washington and London to allow such operations for the Israeli military. Even more, even if Nicosia could do that, the island has two British military bases – both also used by the Americans and occasionally by the Israelis – and over these Nicosia has zero control.
The message therefore was multifold. On the first level it did warn Cyprus not to get involved and let it know that all cooperation with Tel Aviv is known and measured. On the second level this was a message to Tel Aviv not to think that such a maneuver hiding behind a sovereign state would prevent Ḥizb Allah from retaliation. To the contrary, the organization is willing to wage this war in its full extent. Which might not discourage the Israeli officials, they might just use the opportunity to rally other states behind its war campaign, but can bring about serious pressure to those standing behind it.
Because on the next level this message was to Athens, to Brussels and to London that even though so far Cyprus was considered as an untouchable military position, it will not be respected this time. Athens has excellent connections with Tel Aviv and even participated in the war against Yemen now, but Cyprus has a special importance. Brussels should also think about getting directly involved in a war, while the war in Ukraine has a much bigger priority, and is taking a turn to the worse right now. And just as much London should be careful, because by such a war discontent in the island might reach a point where its position holding on to these bases might become almost untenable. So at this point the question is to Athens, Brussels and London: Does it worth it? Or should such involvement be prevented?
And eve more, the message is to Ankara as well, as the northern part of the island is a practical Turkish vassal. Though it is true that this section of the island is not directly involved in these deliberations, but when missiles start to fly, it will be very difficult to prevent “collateral damage”, and tension will flare up once again. Which is not something Ankara would be willing to risk. And thus Ankara should pressure its partners not to allow such a scenario.
This message by Ḥizb Allah is very significant and goes far beyond the matter of the bases themselves. It has an international implication that is unprecedented. That shows that this time, even thought Ḥizb Allah so far exercised a limited war, it is not willing to back down. It is prepared for the worsts, it is sure about its chances, it feels its support base within Lebanon secure enough, and has the means to fight this war.