Despite the diplomatic niceties, the war has begun against Lebanon. With this Israeli aggression, the war that had started nearly a year ago aiming to reshape the region has entered a new phase. Likely not the last one.
After the events of 17 and 18 September exploding thousands of wireless communication devices in Lebanon and a day later once again other devices it was clear that this phase is coming. And indeed it started on Monday. Despite all the diplomatic statements suggesting that there is still hope to prevent an “overall war” that has already started, and there is no escape from even bigger escalation.
There are stated objectives both from Tel Aviv and Ḥizb Allah, but behind them, there are greater targets that don’t allow stepping back from a clash proving the resolve of both sides, just like the support and objectives of supporting parties on both sides.
The Israeli massacres in Beirut and in Southern Lebanon are growing in scope, just like the responses to it. There is already an increased debate now in the Western press about the “unlikelihood” and “improbability”, even “impossibility” of an Israeli land campaign into Lebanon, which signals that within a few days, it will come. In the first three days of October, it will happen.
So far it would seem that Tel Aviv will go to war against Lebanon alone, though with massive Western support. Then the war will expand and will be long, leaving questions how much support will Syria and Iran lend to Lebanon, just like about the behavior of Russia and China.
What had happened last week in Lebanon should frighten many around the world, as unprecedented events took place, and what is coming is just as discouraging.
The pagers and the wireless devices
The current series of events started on 17 September Tuesday, when thousands of pager devices were blown up in Lebanon by the Israeli regime. The official number of victims is around 50 martyrs and 4000 thousand injured, though certain numbers go much much higher and there is very little information about the soldiers of the Resistance Movement. The overwhelming majority, based on those who received medical care, were civilians, most especially in the health sector. A day later another ring of explosions happened, this time so-called “walkie-talkies” military communication devices, with less effect, but more concentrated on military targets.
The biggest goal was not even reaching the leaders of Ḥizb Allah. It was probably expected to fail. The goal was no create general chaos but to better monitor movement and the hospital, eventually finding traces of the most wanted leaders. And with the use of operatives on the ground that is exactly what happened. That is how Ibrāhīm ‘Aqīl, the most experienced military commander of the Resistance, and his first deputy Aḥmad Wahbī were found and assassinated.
That has led to a circle of assassinations by air strikes, which eventually to the martyrdom of most Ḥizb Allah’s operational commander, and on 20 September the most shocking bombardment in the Southern District of Beirut. In this the Israeli bombardment completely erased a whole city block in the area, causing the martyrdom of Ḥizb Allah Secretary General Ḥasan Naṣr Allah, when 84 tons of bombs were dropped to the underground headquarters. This also caused the martyrdom of Iranian Brigadier General ‘Abbās Nīlufarūšān, Deputy Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. He was the highest-ranking member of the Iranian army losing his life in Lebanon. With this Ḥizb Allah suffered a shock losing its leader, who was a legend in the whole region.
The avalanche started with the pager explosion very soon causing the loss of Ḥizb Allah’s highest echelon. Partially covering, but not explaining how such a crushing infiltration happened.
Unanswerable questions
It is undeniable that even though Tel Aviv carried out an unprecedented attack with exploding the pagers it was a major tactical victory. The Israeli version highly publicized in social media about a precision strike is largely false, as the majority of the explosions hit civilians, especially the healthcare sector. But it caused the loss of many leading members of the Resistance, created suspicion about treachery, and undermined the social trust of the movement’s capabilities. Signaling that despite all that was believed Ḥizb Allah is highly vulnerable and just a paper tiger.
Though this broken image was fast regained – at least somewhat – by hitting very sensitive Israeli targets and unveiling new missiles there are pressing questions.
The pagers and the wireless devices were not exploded by sophisticated electronic methods, but by planting explosives into them and making them reach the Residence. But how come this great number of devices were all brought in all during the last few month in the middle of a regional struggle? How come all these devices were purchased from abroad, even if Iran brought them? How come such devices are not manufactured within Iran, when Tehran has more than enough technical and production capability for that? If that was not available, which makes the capabilities of the whole Iranian army very questionable, why was it not brought in from Russia, or China via secured channels? Why was a still largely unclear black market source preferred to a secure military channel?
The other strange aspect is why after the first assassinations the most senior leader did not take safe places, even temporarily out of Lebanon.
The whole picture gives out two likely scenarios. Either there was a high-level traitor in the movement, who is still active, or the Iranian contact team was infiltrated and through this path the leaders were reached. If the first one is true, why was the pager strike not more precise and hit so many civilians? If the latter is true, how is that possible and why was not prevented nor in Iran, nor in Lebanon, even after the first assassination? Simply put, how could the events reach so far, and in so many stages?
Most of these questions are probably answered by now in Beirut and Tehran, but will take a long time to get out in the open. Even though these are crucial questions, as these are present on the streets in the region and swiftly erode the confidence in the Resistance.
The land war is coming?
By the most basic logic it should be unlikely Tel Aviv sending land forces into Lebanon for several reasons. There is no winning strategy, as breaking Ḥizb Allah even just militarily is impossible. That is because the Lebanese Resistance is deeply entrenched in Lebanon and not at all just in the south. Occupying Southern Lebanon was not a viable strategy even in the late ‘90s when Tel Aviv had local allies. That is not existent now, and with every massacre, the social support for the Resistance is growing. Also, it is clear that Ḥizb Allah is fully prepared for a land war, and took even further steps during the last year, all scenarios are expected. And even the experience points against a land campaign. The last time it was tried was in 2006 the Israeli war machine broke down fast in Lebanon, but since then the Resistance grew in strength and equipment, while the Israeli troops were tired after Gaza.
All these aspects are widely discussed now in the Western press, often based on former Israeli military officials and experts. Which based on the behavior of Washington and Tel Aviv during the last ten months shows that a land invasion is inevitable and very close. The most extreme massacres in Beirut on Friday 27 September leveling complete city blocks are already part of this trying to paralyze Ḥizb Allah, trying to assassinate its Secretary General and the biggest number possible of its military leaders, but also trying to break the social fabric in Lebanon turning the people against the Resistance.
Going this far Tel Aviv does not feel any need to stop here, especially feeling the full and unconditional support by Washington militarily and diplomatically. Netanyahu himself, but his whole governmental structure needs to expand the war to come out as absolute victors against any form of resistance in the region. Which cannot happen.
A land invasion will enjoy massive logistical support from Washington and London, which have already sent additional forces to the region, specifically to Cyprus. Given the preparations of Ḥizb Allah this land war will last and with the Israeli forces getting more and more bugged down in Southern Lebanon, not just the strikes from Yemen and Iraq will increase, but also the support coming from Syria and Iran. And since there is no Israeli winning plan, a point where to state victory, this war will last. Tel Aviv as a minimal plan will aim to reach River Litani and to create a “security” barrier to secure the return of its settlers to the north, but even achieving this invasion the northern settlements will not become secure.
The conditions are set. The war of survival.
Shortly before the current series of mutual strikes started both sides stated their official objectives. Which are irreconcilable.
On 18 September Joav Galant, Netanyahu’s war minister at the Ramat David base stated that soon a new phase of the war would start, and on this occasion, Netanyahu stated that the settlements in Northern Palestine must be secured and the settlers – which are numbered in the tens of thousands living in shelters for almost a year – must return. In his last speech Ḥizb Allah Secretary General Ḥasan Naṣr Allah already after the pager attacks stated that the settlers would not be allowed to return, the settlements would not be repopulated and a ceasefire would only come after a ceasefire in Gaza.
Especially after the shocking strikes against it and the loss of Ḥasan Naṣr Allah Ḥizb Allah cannot step back before achieving similarly painful strikes to the Israeli machine and securing a ceasefire in Gaza, because anything less than this will mean a moral failure and the gradual disintegration of the movement.
Netanyahu himself cannot allow peace, because once the war ends he will have to respond to the costly and deeply unsuccessful war in Gaza, for the humiliation of 7 October 2023, and that despite the losses he did not manage to bring back captives from there. So he needed to prolong the war and even bring in the US, so the Americans would fight this war for him. Since this was not achieved by provocations, he went to war.
But the matter is even bigger now for the whole Israeli establishment. It has to achieve providing a convincing scene that all resistance is broken in the region. Otherwise the most productive sections of the Israeli society, those paying the biggest shares of taxes and operating the ever more costly settlements will lose faith. Their conclusion will be that what happened last October and now the whole north of Palestine burning can happen once again in a few years, all the life investments were largely in vain and thus better to leave. Then the reliance of the political structure on the most extreme – and least productive – elements will grow pushing for even more war.
By this Netanyahu will need to present a convincing “victory” which is very far from being achieved even in Gaza. So he will push for more and more wars. Even if he could largely win in Lebanon, he will to not be able to extinguish all resistance, so he will want to go to Syria, and even into war against Iran. With every step, the likelihood of another humiliating defeat will come closer. And since that has become clear, the other side will do all to stop him.
The stakes are just as high for Washington and Teheran, or even Damascus. The American establishment knows full well that the center of its attention and force for a long should have been concentrated on blocking Russia and China. And since for a number of reasons it cannot leave the Israeli regime behind within uncertain terms, the plan was, especially under Trump, to achieve the integration of Tel-Aviv to the region. The compromising Arab states would guarantee its security and economic survival, and the burden of sustaining it militarily and financially would pass on from the U.S. to these Arab states and the region. The eventuality that the majority of the settlers would lose faith and leave would mean that this project fails and America even has to increase its presence and support to achieve its survival. That is why it is primarily Washington now that is fighting and pushing for this war.
Iran just as much can not afford the defeat of Ḥizb Allah, as this movement has been its most successful and strongest ally in the region for decades. Losing this ally would lead to losing most, or all of its regional allies, and eventually the economic and social pressure by Washington would bring it to the verge of a social upheaval, or a civil war. Syria is also in the same path without choices. Because the defeat of Ḥizb Allah would mean that very soon the war would turn against it, and the project started in 2011 to tear Syria into pieces would restart.
That is why a compromise at this point became impossible. That is why the events are slowly, but steadily drifting towards a major war in Lebanon, and eventually towards a highly destructive regional war.